Packers Fan Journal

Packers’ offensive coordinator Joe Philbin recently indicated he’d like the Packers to run the ball more in 2009 in order to even out the pass-to-run ratio. Last year, the Packers ran the ball 43% of the time with Ryan Grant getting 312 of 381 carries by running backs (Rodgers ran the ball 56 times). Grant seems to be nothing, if not durable (he played through a hamstring injury for at least a quarter of last season), so he can handle that volume. But some fans are suggesting that Grant split his carries with Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, or Kregg Lumpkin, whichever steps up as backup this year, in a two-back system such as the one the Dallas Cowboys ran last year. Alas, this will not happen, but the Packers can still even out the pass-to-run ratio.

Run Game Must Be More Effective; Pass Game Less Relied Upon

Evening out the pass-to-run ratio means three things must happen:

1) The offensive line must perform well enough for Grant to increase his average yards per carry from last year’s 3.9 to at least 4.5. That way, if Grant carries the ball as many, or more times than he did last year, he will gain 1,400-plus yards. Grant has shown he can take the beating, so if the offensive line can be more consistent, there is no reason Grant can’t gain more yards per carry this year.

2) One player among Brandon Jackson, Kregg Lumpkin and DeShawn Wynn must step up as a reliable and effective back up to Ryan Grant. Assuming Grant can be more effective this year, he should carry the ball between 300 and 350 times. That will leave 75 to 100 carries up for grabs in specialty packages and when Grant goes to the bench for rest.

3) The Packers must pass the ball 75 to 100 fewer times than they did in 2008. Of course, if the running game is effective, this will be an easy goal to achieve. But in the Packers’ system, many plays feature a run/pass option, so the running game must be effective enough to convince Rodgers to stick with the run in situations that could go either way.

In short, the Packers’ running game must become more effective than it was last year, and the run-to-pass ration will even out. Simply adding carries to a mediocre running game won’t get the job done. A healthy Ryan Grant, until proven otherwise, is the Packers’ most effective back, and as such, he should receive the lion’s share of carries. However, there is plenty of room for another back to contribute 75 to 100 carries and 350 to 450 yards. For an example, look no further than Minneapolis, where last year Adrian Peterson ran the ball 363 times for 1,760 yards, and Chester Taylor added 400 yards on 101 carries.

The Vikings ran the ball more often than they passed it, and while the Packers are very unlikely reach even a one-to-one ratio of passes to runs, they can approach it with a more consistent offensive line and a more effective running game.