2009 Skill Position Predictions: Tight Ends

Lee, Finley Will Split Time; Make Impact

Green Bay Packers v Chicago BearsThe battle for number one tight end this year is a two-man show. Incumbent Donald Lee should hold the number one spot, but what’s in a name? Lee get’s the nod because he’s an all around player; a jack of all trades that will prove valuable in many situations. But he will be pushed hard from second year man, Jermichael Finley, due to the sophomore’s raw talent.

Really, the battle will come down to Finley’s talent versus his maturity. Last he suffered from a lack of comprehension of the offense that kept him on the sidelines. Worse, it kept him from making the most of his opportunities when he was called upon and his immaturity led him to say some thing he shouldn’t have when he made mistakes. All of this has led Packers fans to wondering whether this man has what it takes to be an NFL player. Surely he has the physical talent to be a star, but being even an average NFL player, especially at a position with as many responsibilities as tight end, takes at least a little bit of noggin noodles. Doesn’t it?

Indianapolis Colts v Green Bay Packers

Fortunately, Finley seems plenty smart enough, and all signs are pointing to him returning to the field as a more mature player who’s ready to showcase his rare abilities. Look for Finley to split time with Lee almost equally, and also for the Packers to use more double-tight-end sets. Finley already runs the wheel and fade routes well, but look for him to step out into the slot to run slants and fades against safeties and linebackers. Finley will also run skinny posts and flag patterns from a tight two-point stance while leaving befuddled backers in his dust.

Lee will be featured more in the running game as his blocking skills are superior to Finley’s. But Lee still has the speed to outrun line backers and split safeties down the middle. Look for Lee to run the shorter patterns that will be Rodgers’ first or second read on bootlegs such as drags and out-type-routes; and longer patterns like posts and curls in the play-action game.

Tory Humphry is likely to be the third tight end, but will prove somewhat irrelevant in the passing game. The Packers’ third tight end will see some spot duty in specialty packages, but for the most part will not be relied upon for significant contributions. 

The Packers’ tight ends should have a great season, but with such a strong receiving core, there won’t be a ton of yardage for them. Nonetheless, Finley’s maturity will make them a dangerous duo that will make big plays.

Finley’s 2009 Projection

Receptions Yards Average Touch Downs
24 317 13.2 6

 

Lee’s 2009 Projection

Receptions Yards Average Touch Downs
22 260 11.8 4

 

Up next: Aaron Rodgers.

Leave a Reply

You can use these XHTML tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <strong>